Farmers across South Dakota and the Northern Plains report tighter margins this fall as tariffs, weak exports, and heavy crops push prices down, even as the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects higher net farm income nationally for 2025.
The federal government shutdown that began Oct. 1 has delayed farm payments and halted loan processing, adding to the financial pressure on local growers.
Exports collapse
South Dakota soybean producers face the brunt of the downturn. Jerry Schmitz, executive director of the South Dakota Soybean Association, told South Dakota Searchlight in September that buyers in China have nearly stopped importing U.S. soybeans this season. “There is not a bushel sold to China right now, and we’re about to harvest,” Schmitz said.
U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune reiterated the export slump, noting at a Sept. 26 event that “Sixty percent of our soybeans are exported, mostly to China”. Historically, about 30 percent of South Dakota’s 230 million bushels were shipped to China, but that figure has plummeted in 2025.
Soybean cash bids in South Dakota on Oct. 7 ranged from $9.11 to $9.87 per bushel, down from last year’s statewide average of $10.50–$11.20. Schmitz said South Dakota prices were another 80 cents to $1.35 lower than national averages due to weaker basis values at local elevators.
U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, a South Dakota Republican, estimated that the $2 per bushel price drop on roughly 250 million bushels could cost state growers close to $500 million.
Andrew Streff, a corn and soybean farmer from Salem, told South Dakota Searchlight he was running his combine 12 hours a day at the end of September. “Our beans are the cheapest in the world, by about $2 a bushel, but this trade war is keeping them out of China — our biggest customer,” he said.
Costs climb and basis weakens
Tariffs on steel and aluminum have raised the price of farm machinery. According to USDA and commodity economists, farm production expenses nationwide are projected to reach $467.4 billion in 2025, up $12 billion from last year.
Country elevator bids make the squeeze apparent. AG Processing Inc. and other South Dakota buyers posted local cash bids between $9.11 and $9.87 per bushel for No. 2 yellow soybeans, while basis values at elevators ran from -$1.10 to -$1.40 under Chicago board futures. “That’s a really terrible basis,” University of Minnesota Extension grain market economist Ed Usset told Brownfield Ag News in early October.
A dollar loss per bushel equals about $900 lost on a typical 900-bushel truckload.
Bailouts and bankruptcies
Congress approved $28 billion in crop aid during 2018 and 2019, according to the Congressional Research Service. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Oct. 2 the Trump administration is considering new farm aid. The administration is expected to announce an initial bailout plan totaling up to $15 billion in mid-October.
The October 1 federal shutdown delayed payments and halted loan processing, with over 42,000 USDA employees furloughed, including 6,300 Farm Service Agency staff, disrupting financing for growers during harvest.
Farm bankruptcies in the region increased through the first half of 2025, reaching the highest level seen since 2021. Recent legal data shows that by October, more than 361 Chapter 12 filings were recorded across the Midwest and Northern Plains. “There were 282 Chapter 12 bankruptcies filed in just the first half of the year,” said Austin Peiffer, associate attorney at Ag and Business Legal Strategies. “Last year the overall total was 181.”
